What is already priced in?
Examine valuation, earnings expectations, price trends and the news around a company.
Independent investment research
Understand
what you own.
Examine a company, review your holdings or test a retirement scenario. Get written research with the numbers, assumptions and trade-offs in view.
Our method draws on
contributors’ experience at
Independent contributors. No institutional affiliation or endorsement. Contributors do not review every answer.
Inside the desk
See the desk in action.
Explore a retirement scenario, examine your holdings or investigate a company.
Retirement research
Could this plan fund $60,000 a year from age 67 to 95?
424of 850 tested stretches lasted
In the recorded withdrawal test, 426 stretches depleted the balance. The result shows why spending and retirement assumptions deserve a closer look.
Lasted: 424Depleted: 426
Change an assumption. Compare the result.
The tests cover overlapping historical periods. They do not establish the probability of future success. In the desk, you can change the assumptions and compare another scenario.
Read the method and limitationsHow this result was calculated Historical method, assumptions and limitations
The model first estimates the balance at retirement from historical saving periods. It then tests withdrawal periods starting from the median accumulated balance of USD 935,224. The 424 surviving stretches therefore describe the withdrawal test; they are not 424 complete, continuous saving-and-retirement histories.
The rate is sensitive to the assumptions. This example excludes Social Security and pensions, assumes a flat dividend yield and reserve return, and holds inflation at 3%. Past outcomes cannot establish the probability of your own retirement succeeding.
Source, capture date and modelling limits
This exhibit reproduces the recorded product reply from 4 September 2026 at 07:24 ET. The response labels its monthly history January 1928–September 2026; September was still in progress when captured. It is an archived result, not a live calculation or a completed September observation.
The saving and withdrawal windows overlap and are not independent observations. The stock sleeve uses S&P 500 history; reserve returns, dividends and inflation are fixed assumptions. Personal taxes, changing spending and future market conditions can alter the outcome. The lower accumulation case in the same response produced different withdrawal results.
Use the result to examine assumptions and compare scenarios—not as a recommendation or a guarantee.
Portfolio analysis
Illustrative portfolio · Equal-weight assumptionTwelve funds. What needs a closer look?
An example question: “Assuming equal weights, where could these funds overlap—and what risks should I examine?”
The research brief
Look through the fund names.
A fund count alone does not establish diversification. Look at the investments inside each fund, then examine the portfolio as a whole.
- Check overlapping exposure. How much of the same company or market could you hold through several funds?
- Separate the bond roles. Is a holding intended for near-term cash, income or sensitivity to changing interest rates?
- Test the assumptions. How would different weights change concentration, drawdowns or the cash you may need?
This is an illustrative research brief, not a captured answer, measured exposure analysis or recommended portfolio.
Sources and limitations
This invented mix uses publicly listed funds. Fund names can be checked with Vanguard, Invesco, iShares and SPDR Gold Shares. A real analysis needs the holdings, weights and current underlying fund data. The desk cannot access brokerage accounts, place trades or move money.
Company research
Illustrative research brief · Microsoft FY2025Strong growth. How much cash is left to reinvest?
Reported facts
One company. One reporting period.
- Revenue
- USD 281.724bn
Up 15% as reported.
- Net cash from operations
- USD 136.162bn
- Cash additions to property and equipment
- USD 64.551bn
Fiscal year ended . Source: Microsoft 2025 Annual Report. Historical figures; no current share price or valuation is implied.
Follow the cash calculation
Subtracting cash additions to property and equipment from operating cash flow gives USD 71.611bn. This simple comparison is not a formal reported free-cash-flow measure and excludes lease additions. It is not all cash available for shareholders: other investing and financing uses also matter.
More of the work
A screen that shows its conditions.
Technical screensA dated screen, including the names it ruled out
What the last run found
Archived run · 3 September 2026, 14:26 ET
Setting up
coiled under a level
51
Breaking out
through its prior 52-week high
23
Triggered
holding above a frozen trigger
11
Buy zone
back at its breakout level
0
Steady trend
stacked and rising
315
Reversal
back above the 50-day
1
Worn out
a break gone quiet
0
One row, exactly as it ran:
SBLK
$32.02 · +0.63% · RSI 68.6 · new 52-week closing high
volume 0.77x — light, under the 1.45x its size needs
Trigger 30.90
written down the night it appeared, and not moved since — held above it 2 days
The trigger is a ruler: written down the night it appeared and not moved since.
Thrown off the board · word for word
- daily range near 7-10% — a stop there is 15-18% and the house stands down
- trades about $3.9m a day — too thin to get in and out of without moving it
- gap then unusually tight range — the acquisition signature
- moved 13%+ and gave it back the next day
Every one of those charts looked fine. That is the point.
What to notice
1,941 that night
Measured against seven screens, every listed name down to $2bn.
0 in the buy zone
That night, and 0 worn out: it prints its zeros.
30.90 the trigger
SBLK's line. Price has held above it for two days.
Archive shown as captured; the product displays the latest completed run with its timestamp.
A desk you can keep coming back to
Follow the questions
that matter to you.
Start with a company. Bring in your holdings. Return when your plans or the market change.
Company research
How do my holdings fit together?
Read the brokerage, IRA, Roth or 401(k) statements you provide in one conversation. Explore allocation, income and trade-offs.
What changes if I retire earlier?
Replay saving and spending assumptions through market history. Compare the effects of timing, contributions and withdrawals.
What deserves a closer look today?
Use nightly equity screens, the event calendar and options-chain tools to guide your next question.
You remain in control. The desk cannot access your brokerage accounts, place trades or move money.
The method
Built around research.
Independent by design.
The desk does not manage your money or sell financial products. Its role is to help you understand the investments and decisions in front of you.
A written method.
Professionals with Wall Street experience shape the research framework. The AI applies it using market data, analytical tools and the information you provide.
Reasoning you can examine.
An answer should explain what supports it and what could change it. Follow up on an assumption, compare another scenario or save the research to revisit.
Context for the numbers.
Quotes, options and company data update on different schedules. The latest available observation is not always live.
The foundation
A research framework
built on Wall Street experience.
The research methodology draws on contributors' experience at:
- Goldman Sachs
- J.P. Morgan
- Merrill Lynch
- Tudor
- Bank of America
Answers are generated by the desk’s automated system, within a human-written framework. A person does not write or review every answer. Contributors act independently and are not named. The institutions listed do not sponsor or endorse The Alpha Desk. Read the disclosures.
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Is this financial advice?
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